2025 Weather Outlook

As most farmers know, weather forecasts hold many surprises and opportunities for the growing season. In 2025, meteorologists are predicting that the weather will set the stage for shifting
storm tracks and unseasonable conditions.

To begin the year, AccuWeather long-range experts state that the stormy pattern at the end of 2024 will continue into 2025 across much of the western U.S. Milder air, however, is expected to bring a January thaw to parts of the eastern U.S.

February could bring colder and wintry weather back to parts of the eastern U.S. in the final month of winter. While across the West, a shift from the January pattern could bring rain and storms.

Key Weather Patterns for 2025

Looking to the future, a few key weather patterns and anomalies are anticipated for 2025 in the U.S., including:

Drier Conditions

Drought is a concern for the Southwest, due to a drier winter season, extending into the spring and summer. This could be especially notable in the wheat and cotton region.

“This can also lead to a more persistent high-pressure area, which can send a storm track across the northern Rockies through the Midwest and East,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert.

The overall projected pattern for spring and early summer shows: wetter Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valley, at times in the Northeast. Wet in the Pacific Northwest through late winter is possible. Drier conditions are more likely for the southern Plains and Southwest.

High Water Temperatures

Higher temperatures in the Northern Pacific may warm during the springtime.

“This can help contribute to drier conditions at times in the middle of the summer in the Northwest,” Pastelok added.

In the Gulf, waters can warm, which can lead to an increase in heavier rain events for the central Gulf States, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley during the planting and growing season.

Some forecast models, according to Pastelok, show above average water temperatures this summer for the Atlantic.

“The water can cool during the winter and spring, based on some factors,” said Pastelok. “It may be a slower recovery. If this occurs, later in the summer could be warmer and drier, perhaps some late stress for crops in the eastern U.S. But the tropics could change that, which is too difficult to determine this far out.”

He added that the U.S. is not anticipating an El Nino or La Nina mid-spring through at least early fall, providing less impact on the weather pattern.

There is a chance, however, that the Polar Vortex could shift south, bringing more cold to parts of the U.S. for early spring, possibly delaying spring planting. Pastelok added that this is difficult to predict, but the current weather patterns are consistent with previous years.

Late Frost Risks

For planting season, it’s important that farmers keep an eye on frost dates, especially late frosts, to protect their crops. The Farmers Almanac shared these average frost dates that vary by state and should be closely monitored before planting season arrives.

According to AccuWeather, late frost risk is a bit higher for the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, with a near average in the Northeast.

Heatwave Risks

Risk is higher for the Southwest due to below-average winter moisture, an early push of warm to hot weather and a storm track well to the north. This could extend at times into the Plains.

Drought Risks

Drought conditions could be severe in the Southwest and western Plains, leading to early fire risks.

“Watch for water restrictions early in the year,” advised Pastelok.

Climate Change Impacts on 2025

Looking into 2025, the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly evident. With rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather, an AccuWeather meteorologist weighs in on what to expect in the year ahead.

“I do not see any dramatic shifts in the overall trends that we have been seeing in recent decades,” explained Brett Anderson, AccuWeather’s senior meteorologist and climate expert. “Expect many more new record-high temperatures compared to record-low temperatures.”

He continued, stating that extreme weather events such as intense, long-duration heat waves, drought and flooding rainfall will likely be a common occurrence in many parts of the country once again.

“We expect ocean water temperatures to remain abnormally high from the Gulf to the Atlantic coast,” he added, “which can add moisture for bigger storms and lead to even high humidity during the summer and fall.”

For growing zones, no real shifts are expected for the short term, as there can still be a period of extreme low temperatures in many regions, despite climate change reducing that risk. However, beyond the year 2070, many regions, especially across the northern two-thirds of the U.S., may see a significant change.

“These regions may see their plant hardiness zone number increase by two or even three, as man-made warming continues,” explained Anderson. “This will have major impacts on agriculture, leading to a potential major shift northward of some crops.”

In terms of global average temperature, Anderson expects 2025 to very likely rank in the top 10 warmest on record, if not the top five. But it may not be quite as warm as 2024.

Advice for Farmers

As farmers plan for the 2025 growing season, AccuWeather expert meteorologists are urging farmers, families and businesses to prepare for a future with more frequent, extreme and costly weather events and disasters.

In 2024, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, flooding and extreme heat cost Americans more than $500 billion in total damage and economic loss. This accounted for nearly 2% of the national gross domestic product.