US Beef Production Decline: Causes and Future Outlook

Despite the increase in cow carcass weights, the U.S. beef industry is experiencing a considerable decline in production, contributing to inflated consumer prices. Many factors come into play, including environmental challenges and changing consumer consumption patterns.

According to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, 2023 had the smallest beef cow inventory in the last 50 years, despite historically strong demand. CattleFax, the industry’s leading market and weather analysis, says “lingering drought, high input costs, limited labor availability, high interest rates and market uncertainty” all play a role in the stunted growth of cow herds.

CattleFax also reported that at the beginning of 2024, U.S. beef cowherds declined 2% with inventories at 28.2 million. In 2023, beef production was down by approximately 1.3 billion pounds, and 2024 isn’t looking much better. According to the report, the continued decline “will lead to a 1.7-pound decline in net beef supply to 56 pounds per person.”

Why is this downward trend occurring despite heavier cows, and will the U.S. see an uptick in the near future?

Suzanne Barkley, director of food supply chain certification at NSF weighed in, stating: “Cattle prices continue to hold steady despite the decline in beef production. At the same time, sustainable and ethical practices are being implemented to meet consumer expectations and address industry-wide issues.”

Contributing Factors

With the decline in U.S. cowherds and beef production, Barkley says the main contributors to this issue include climate change, drought and consumer consumption patterns.

In addition, higher feed prices, input costs and interest rates, paired with strong demand, has resulted in lower U.S. production.

Smaller Operations

Declining beef production impacts can be felt more at smaller cow-calf operations. This is due to many smaller operations having less ability to remain economically viable. 

“Many farms and meat companies are family-owned, with subsequent younger generations choosing not to continue the lineage of such businesses,” said Barkley.

She said that this has presented additional challenges at a time when labor is already limited and stretched.

Not Enough Feed 

Not enough feed (e.g. feed not readily available and too costly) results in reduced herd sizes. A reduced beef cow herd size then results in reduced beef calf crop.

“This includes a decrease in replacement beef heifers, to supply the beef cow herds,” Barkley explains. “Which then leads to fewer cattle to put in feedlots supplying to slaughter facilities.”

Slow Rebuild Time Frames

According to Barkley, the industry response often starts at the cow-calf herd and the time frame to rebuild is slow.

For reference, the time frame from when a heifer calf is born until typical inclusion in the reproductive herd for breeding is one and a half to two years. From there, a 283-day gestation period, plus six to nine months until the calf is weaned, plus six to 12 months to finish cattle to market weight.

“The total time frame is anywhere from two and a half to three years, assuming all conditions stay good for that period of time,” she says.

Climate Change

Climate change has led to drought and, over the last three years, has impacted the largest beef producing state, Texas.

“The impacts of drought are felt not just on the animals, but on the crops that go into animal feed as well,” says Barkley. 

Consumer Consumption Patterns

In the U.S., consumer consumption patterns are trending toward leaner types of meat, such as pork, poultry, fish, seafood and plant proteins, thus impacting demand for beef products.

“Consumer debt and interest rates are also high,” Barkley explains, “making cheaper, alternative proteins more appealing. At the same time, U.S. consumption has stayed relatively steady, experiencing a 1.7 percent decline in 2023 with current estimates unchanged for 2024.”

A recent study conducted by NSF revealed that consumers are concerned about how animals are treated in the food industry, as well as the origin of animal products in food production at a time when meat consumption in the U.S. is projected to remain consistent from 2022 until at least 2032.

A few key findings from the study include:

• 67% of U.S. consumers say animal wellness is either very or extremely important to purchasing decisions.
• 68% of U.S. consumers said it was very important or extremely important that companies demonstrate consistency and compliance with animal wellness throughout their supply chain.
• 62% declared they are more likely to purchase a product that has been certified for animal wellness by a third party, especially those between the 30 to 44 age group, who are 77% more likely.
  

Animal Wellness Plays a Large Role

In her position at NSF, Barkley leads second-party programs, which utilize NSF standards such as Global Animal Wellness Standards (GAWS) or other external/client proprietary animal wellness schemes. Her role includes oversight of NSF’s GAWS, the first system in the food agriculture industry that establishes a universal approach to animal health and wellness.

“Animal wellness is becoming more of a priority with ranchers incorporating practices that provide cattle with more space and better treatment,” she explains. “NSF’s GAWS, which are based on the Five Freedoms, help farmers prioritize the wellbeing of their animals.”

The GAWS comprehensive framework ensures wellness for the entire life span of animals throughout the protein supply chain. These commitments benefit all parties involved, offering long-term advantages including reduced antibiotic use, improved feed efficiency, higher yields and better product grading.

Barkley continues, saying, “We often refer to the “one health” concept, which says animal health, human health and environmental health are intrinsically intertwined and interdependent where the health of one affects the health of all.”

Offsetting the Impact

As rising temperatures lead to drought and hotter conditions, farmers are using different feeding schedules, types of feed and water conservation methods.

“Sustainability is now a key focus,” Barkley explains. “As ranchers work to conserve land and producers and packagers aim to minimize energy use.”

Some of the solutions farmers, producers and packagers can consider include:

• Climate: Prioritizing energy efficiency, renewable energy, reduction of fossil fuels and low carbon feeds.
• Water: Using efficient water systems, water reuse and wastewater management.
• Waste: Investing in recycling, composting, upcycling foods and waste audits.
• Land Management: Free range options, consideration of feed sources/rotational grazing and deforestation, cover crops and silvopasture.
• Packaging: Using bio-based, recyclable or compostable materials and lightweighting.
• Transportation: Alternative fuels and efficient routes.

Another option is breed diversification. Barkley says using heat-tolerant breeds crossbred with less-tolerant, meat-producing breeds has shown to be successful in some southern states including Florida and Texas. The dairy industry can also be looked at as a source for beef.

NSF Resources

To address climate change and drought issues, NSF certifies to the GLOBALG.A.P standard, which includes a protocol called the Sustainable Program for Irrigation and Groundwater Use.

“This key tool reduces the environmental impact of irrigation practices,” says Barkley, “reducing the risk of crop failures to droughts and other natural disasters.”

In California, NSF offers Proposition 12 certification for American meat distributors, focused on ethical animal practices.

The Future of US Beef Production

According to Barkley, the impacts of climate change, including drought, will continue to impact the U.S. beef production industry. 

“Producers and packers can expect increased pressure from consumers to prioritize sustainability and animal wellness,” she explains.

And according to a report by CoBank, so long as cattle weights stay up and slaughter numbers stay down, consumers can continue to expect inflated beef prices.

But things could be looking up. The U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its 2025 beef production outlook, stating that heavier cow carcass weights are predicted to carry over, giving hope to consumers, farmers, producers and meat-packers alike.