US Farmers Maintain Crop Rotations Despite Market Trends
Despite rising corn prices, U.S. farmers are sticking to their crop rotations, prioritizing agronomic stability over market fluctuations and policy shifts, according to the latest Farm Futures survey.
The survey, conducted by Farm Futures, a Farm Progress publication, reveals that large-scale farmers with significant corn and soybean acreage remain committed to rotation practices rather than reacting to grain market forecasts. Only 13% of respondents reported adjusting their acreage plans in response to commodity price trends over the past two months.
Corn Acreage Adjustments Vary by State
Although the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected 94 million acres of corn and trade estimates exceeded 95 million, the Farm Futures March survey suggests these predictions may be inflated.
Among respondents from the top 10 corn-producing states, half reported a reduction in planted corn acres.
In Illinois and Iowa, which collectively produce about one-third of U.S. corn, data suggests limited acreage shifts:
- In Illinois, farmers increased their corn acreage by an average of six acres, reaching 590 acres per respondent.
- Iowa farmers reduced their average corn acreage from 568 acres to 556, nearly aligning with 2023 levels.
“The ratio of new crop soybean to corn futures is around 2.25-to-1, giving only a slight advantage to corn,” Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures editor emeritus, said. "Generally, a 2-1 ratio buys lots of corn and a 2.5-1 ratio buys soybeans.”
Knorr noted that both crops are currently projected to operate at a financial loss.
“When factoring in total economic costs — including family labor and capital — each crop is expected to generate a negative return of approximately $120 per acre,” he said. “Given current new crop futures prices and estimated per-acre costs from the USDA, both options present nearly identical losses.”
Long-Term Planning Over Market Reactions
Three-quarters of surveyed farmers cited agronomic benefits as their primary reason for maintaining crop rotations.
Over half stated their rotations are fixed, while 38% reported they could adjust less than 25% of their planted acres.
“What we’re seeing is that farmers are looking deeper into their operations. They are focusing on long-term advantages,” Pam Caraway, Farm Futures executive editor, said.
Despite this commitment, 36% of respondents expressed concern about market conditions, and 39% worried about their ability to manage debt.
“With a good crop rotation, both grains are more likely to show higher yields with lower input costs. Long term — and farmers think in generational pictures — the advantages to the land and the economics of the operation are higher with a good crop rotation,” Caraway added.
Political Outlook: Trump’s Performance
Surveyed farmers also remain firm in their political views, with 36% rating former President Donald Trump’s performance as “better than expected.” Nearly half described it as “about what I expected,” while 18% downgraded their assessment.
Trade disputes and weak grain prices remain top concerns. However, optimism exists regarding expanded export markets and reduced government regulation.
Overall, farmers identified weather as a greater concern than market conditions or federal policy disruptions.
One respondent wrote that their main worry was the “intolerance of short-term pain needed to fix problems.”
Another countered, stating, “Can’t see anything he’s doing so far [that’s] helping. Everything is more expensive, and crop markets have tanked.”
